The Ramstein Defence Contact Group meeting took place on January 20 with some 50 countries participating in it. The West’s defence policy in the war in Ukraine could change as a result of this meeting.
So far, the West led by NATO has been careful to supply weapons to Ukraine which cannot easily be used by the latter against Russia. This may be about to change. Although Germany and the US are ostensibly reluctant to supply offensive battle tanks of long-range to Ukraine, it now appears a matter of time before they acquiesce. Certainly, some countries led by Poland are now bent on supplying Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, come hell or high water. What accounts for this fundamental shift in position?
The assessment seems to be that Russia is preparing for a massive spring offensive and the only way to pre-empt this is to supply offensive weapons to Ukraine which will enable the latter to eject Russia from areas occupied by it currently in Ukraine. The thinking is that the only way to bring Russia to the negotiating table is to defeat it first in the battle field.
It is not clear what the “liberation of Ukrainian territories” entails. For instance, in addition to areas occupied in Donbas region, does it involve blocking Russia’s access to the land corridor to Crimea. And if this is indeed the ultimate objective, then the million dollar question is how Russia will react to it? React it most certainly will and all bets are off, including the dreaded “N” word!
All this cannot but lead to a very grim prognosis about where the war in Ukraine is heading. We still seem a long way from peace and are destined to see more bloodshed in the months ahead. The year 2023 could not have gotten off to a worse start.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 