Japan is a key player in the Indio-Pacific. After all, the very concept of a free and open Indo-Pacific is attributed to the late Japanese leader Shinzo Abe. So when Japan produces a National Security Strategy and a National Defence Strategy document, it must merit the attention it deserves. But the Russian war in Ukraine and the Football World Cup has perhaps resulted in the Japanese decision going under the radar!
While the documents (three to be precise, National Security Strategy, National Defence Strategy and the Defence Build-up Program) will need to be studied in depth, one thing is abundantly clear: Japan is shedding the last vestiges of a “defensive” security strategy and is well on its way to crafting a “dynamic” and “offensive” security strategy. Justifying this shift, the National Security Strategy says that Japan is in the midst of the most “severe and complex security environment since World War II”. The result is that Japan will increase defence spending and will acquire counter-strike missile capability. Of course, the document also refers to the necessity of Japan working closely with allies and friends and India is mentioned in this context.
One does not have to be rocket scientist, to determine which country all this is aimed at: China, of course. Indeed, the National Security Strategy describes China as the biggest strategic challenge. Interestingly, China is not described as a “threat” while North Korea is. This goes beyond semantics and constitutes a paradigm shift in Japan’s defence strategy. Countries like India should sit up and take note. We too must develop our independent deterrence vis a vis countries like China in the Indo-Pacific. Excessive reliance on external balancing and plurilateral groupings such as Quad, can only serve India thus far.
China and Russia are expected to conduct joint live-fire naval exercises in the East China sea beginning 21 December. This must be seen in conjunction with statements emanating from Japan that it cannot sit idly by if Taiwan is attacked and invaded by China.
As Zelensky goes to US for arms shopping today, former Russian PM Medvedev has reached Beijing and has had a meeting with Xi Jinping, presumably with a message from Putin. We will know in due course how this plays out. The sad truth is a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine conflict seems as distant as ever.
Nevertheless, Indo-Pacific remains the epicenter for all diplomatic activity as a tumultuous year ends and another one appears on the horizon.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 