So, Indian and Chinese troops have clashed again, this time in the Tawang sector in Arunachal Pradesh. The place of the clash is significant, since China has often claimed, outrageously, that “Zagnan” (Chinese reference to Arunachal Pradesh) has always been part of the Tibet Autonomous Region of China. Indeed, China refers to it as South Tibet. The Indian Defence Ministry has put out a statement saying that Chinese troops had encroached into Indian territory and sought to change the status quo, much like what they tried to do in Ladakh in June 2020 leading to deaths on both sides. Fortunately, no casualties have been noted by either side this time, though injuries have been reported. India has said that the transgression by Chinese troops was repulsed and they have been forced to go back to their posts following disengagement of troops. Chinese Foreign Ministry gave no details about the incident, saying blithely the situation on the Sino-Indian border was generally stable. The good news is that local military commanders appear to have followed the laid-out procedures and tried to defuse the situation. It is understood that India has raised the issue through diplomatic channels as well.
While details will emerge in the next few days, it is important to ask why the Chinese did what they did. Could it be a reaction to the joint Indo-American joint military exercise “Yudh Abhyas” done last month within 100 Kms from the Sino-Indian border in Uttarakhand. This was objected to by the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman at the time who said it violated the spirit of the bilateral agreements of 1993 and 1996. More broadly, India is also basking in the limelight of just having taken over the presidency of the G20 and is preparing a series of meetings in the run-up to the summit meeting in September 2023 in Delhi. Could it be linked to this?
Whatever the motive, the incident taken along with the more serious ones that happened in June 20 in Ladakh, is cause for worry. The Chinese are making a habit of preventing India from patrolling in areas where they have done so earlier, using the disputed nature of the border as a pretext. India, which has successfully resisted transgressions so far, is thus having to be in a situation of eternal vigilance. Valuable resources are having to be deployed and maintained at the border by India.
When the recent COVID protests happened in China and President Xi Jinping was forced to beat a retreat, the question was posed by observers as to how China would conduct its foreign policy. Could it possibly lead China to be more belligerent vis-a-vis some of its neighbours? In this regard, do the recent clashes in Arunachal Pradesh provide a clue? Hopefully over time, answers to these questions will emerge.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 