When unprecedented protests in China occurred last month, most China watchers did what is known as “spread betting” without clearly outlining what will happen next. Yes, some had predicted loosening of covid controls but not without adding in the same breath that there could be massive state repression. In the event, what is a matter of great surprise is the extent of loosening of covid controls over the last few days. At the time of writing, several Chinese cities have eased covid controls. The most important of these have been: doing away with the stringent requirement of commuters to present the covid test result for travel on public transport and allowing apartment residents who test positive to quarantine at home rather than in central quarantine facilities. Other moves to ease citizens’ lives may well be under way.
On whether or not there has been massive state repression and action against “protest leaders”, it is hard to say. There has been a discernible increase in police presence in public spaces for sure, but no other reports (yet?) of widespread violence.
In an extremely unusual move, China’s supreme leader Xi Jinping acknowledged the protests to the visiting EU delegation led by European Council President Charles Michel and reportedly said that “frustrated” students were behind the protests following the strict covid restrictions over the last couple of years. This is unheard of for a Chinese leader since it is tantamount to discussing China’s ‘internal affairs’ with outsiders, that too with leaders of the decadent West!
So, what just happened in China? It is hard to avoid the impression that the scale and manner of protests did rattle the powers that be. At a minimum, Xi Jinping did not want further escalation of these protests in a way that would have irreversibly eroded his authority, only weeks after his coronation as China’s unquestioned leader at the twentieth Communist Party Congress. It does seem as though Xi Jinping has bent to the will of the protesters, even if this is temporary and tactical.
The timing of the protests may have also contributed to Xi Jinping’s decision to loosen covid controls. China is facing serious economic headwinds, intense geopolitical rivalry with the US and a global economy on the brink of recession thanks to the war in Ukraine. To have internal dissent and disharmony at home at a time like this would have been too risky and dangerous, even for a country as authoritarian as China. Viewed this way, the loosening of covid controls is a shrewd move by a leader who knows when to give in. But the long term implications of this for China are harder to assess. Will this embolden the Chinese people further in expressing themselves in the future, making governance of some 1.4 billion people that much more difficult? China watchers will simply tell you to wait and watch!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 