Something is clearly afoot in China. A society which prides itself on discipline, order and calm has seen a spate of protests and serious outburst from the youth over the last couple of days. While the immediate trigger for the protests are obviously the draconian zero-covid policy measures of the authorities, there are also tell tale signs it could be linked to a larger quest for freedom by the populace. An odd poster (or two) has appeared even asking for the stepping down of the newly anointed leader, Xi Jinping.
It is hard to think of any precedent for this in recent times. One has to go back to the Tiananmen incidents in 1989. But it is important not to exaggerate the scale of the events of the past two days. First, there does not seem to be any real threat to the Government. Sure, it is a clear sign of discontent with the Zero Covid policies of the authorities, but perhaps no more than that. Second, the Government may react with both carrot and stick. Carrot, in the form of tangible relaxation of the draconian Covid policies and stick, in the form of rounding up the youth who dared to protest. Last, but not least, Xi Jinping may deflect the issue by squarely blaming the local authorities for not just the fire and the subsequent deaths at Urumqui in Xinjiang province, but also hold them responsible for the misapplication of the Zero Covid policy. Expect heads to roll. Whether this will be enough to appease the protesters, one will have to wait and see. China-watchers the world over must be working overtime.
It really goes to the heart of the million-dollar question posed about China, for which there is never a clear answer. As China becomes more and more prosperous, is it conceivable that the population there demands more freedom, as people everywhere else in the world are apt to do. Or are the Chinese people so “sui generis”, that they are relatively immune to this general law of human nature. Only time will tell!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 