Democracies have a way of confounding political pundits, especially with their poll predictions. And so it was at the midterm election in the world’s most powerful democracy where the Republicans in general and candidates backed by Trump in particular, were expected to triumph. Instead, many of them lost and the “red wave” (a reference to Republican party) failed to materialize. More significantly, Joe Biden has withstood anti-incumbency in a way that no one imagined and way better than Obama or Clinton at this stage. No mean achievement!
Should one see this as a one-off thing or is a trend discernible that will eventually lead to the political demise of Trump and his supporters. It is worth cautioning against overinterpretation of these results. First, Trump is not about to disappear, though no one can contest that he has been weakened. Second, the new kid on the block i.e. Ron Desantis is, as one wag put it, Trump with a lot of intelligence! So the ideas behind the Trump phenomenon may be expected to receive political traction.
What of the democrats? They can take a lot of heart. If anything, they could have pushed even more on issues such as abortion which attracted a fair number of Republican party sympathisers.
What are the implications for foreign policy? Well, the Congress will be divided and acrimonious. But it is not clear the ?Republicans will be able to thwart everything that Biden seeks to do. So, if Biden can play it smart and seek cooperation across the isle, who knows he may even get a lot of things accomplished. On China and Ukraine, expect more of the same policy. Biden may also get a free hand, if the Republicans get into an internecine strife between Trump and Desantis.
All things considered, American democracy is alive and well. Warren Buffett has never seemed more right: never bet against America!!!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 